Why Cashless Societies Fail: Analyzing Global Attempts to Eliminate Cash

While several countries have moved towards a cashless society, none have completely eliminated physical money. However, some have experienced significant challenges in attempting to drastically reduce its use. Here's an analysis of some notable cases:

India: The Most Dramatic Demonetization Experiment

In 2016, India carried out a sudden and large-scale demonetization, withdrawing 500 and 1000 rupee notes from circulation, which represented 86% of the cash in circulation. The aim was to combat the shadow economy, counterfeiting, and terrorism financing. However, this measure had unforeseen and severe consequences:

1. Liquidity crisis: Millions of Indians, especially in rural areas, were left without access to cash for daily transactions.
2. Economic impact: The Indian economy experienced a significant slowdown, with GDP falling from 8.2% to 7.1% in the following quarter.
3. Job losses: Many small businesses and informal sector workers suffered income and job losses.
4. Queues and chaos: Long lines formed at banks to exchange old notes, causing disruptions to daily life.
5. Lack of preparedness: The digital and banking infrastructure was not ready to handle such a sudden change.
6. Limited impact on the shadow economy: Contrary to expectations, most cash returned to the banking system, suggesting the impact on the shadow economy was less than anticipated.

Sweden: The Pioneer That Stepped Back

Sweden has long been considered the country closest to a cashless society. However, even this pioneer has encountered obstacles:

1. Financial exclusion: The elderly, immigrants, and people with disabilities have faced difficulties adapting to digital payments.
2. Privacy concerns: The lack of anonymity in digital transactions has raised concerns about government surveillance and control.
3. System vulnerability: Technological failures and cyberattacks have become more serious threats to the financial system.
4. Resistance movement: A movement called "Kontantupproret" (Cash Rebellion) has formed to defend the right to use cash.
5. Government intervention: In 2018, the Swedish government had to intervene to ensure banks continued to offer cash services throughout the country.

Venezuela: Economic Crisis and Cash Dependency

Although Venezuela has not deliberately attempted to eliminate cash, its economic crisis has led to a severe shortage of banknotes, illustrating the dangers of an unstable payment system:

1. Hyperinflation: Rapid currency devaluation has made cash scarce and impractical for daily transactions.
2. Poor infrastructure: Electronic payment systems often fail due to power outages and connectivity issues.
3. Informal economy: A large part of the population relies on cash transactions, especially in US dollars.
4. Difficulties with basic transactions: People face challenges paying for essential services and buying food.

Lessons Learned

These cases demonstrate several important points about the challenges of eliminating or drastically reducing the use of cash:

1. Financial inclusion: It's crucial to ensure all segments of the population have access to viable alternatives before reducing cash use.
2. Robust infrastructure: A solid and reliable digital and banking infrastructure is needed to support a predominantly electronic payment system.
3. Gradual transition: Sudden changes can cause significant disruptions. A gradual transition allows for smoother adaptation.
4. Privacy considerations: It's important to address concerns about privacy and anonymity in digital transactions.
5. System resilience: A purely digital payment system can be vulnerable to technological failures and cyberattacks.
6. Economic impact: Drastic reduction of cash can have unforeseen effects on the economy, especially in the informal sector.
7. Access to basic services: It's fundamental to ensure people can access essential services and perform everyday transactions.
8. Education and adaptation: Widespread financial education is needed to help the population adapt to new payment systems.

Conclusion

In conclusion, although the trend towards a less cash-dependent society continues, these cases demonstrate that a total elimination of physical money can be problematic and potentially harmful if not handled carefully. The main lesson is that any transition towards a cashless society must be gradual, inclusive, and take into account the needs of all segments of the population.